Week 10 Preview – 11/10/2006

Tough Game to Billieve in
The Indianapolis Colts are the last undefeated team left in the NFL, and the Bills have the task of going into Indy and trying to change that to keep their own season alive. This is a classic David vs. Goliath match up, the Bills really do not have anything in their favor heading into the match up. While the Bills front four is having trouble getting consistent pressure, they are going up against a tough veteran offensive line that includes 2 Pro-Bowlers. Aaron Schobel is having a great year with seven sacks and remains one of the most underrated players in the league. Sadly Tripplett has been a disappointment (15 tackles, 0 sacks) and no other DT has stepped up. McCargo is out and the Bills still do not have one sack from the Defensive tackle position. Schobel’s continuing his promising season won’t be enough for the Bills to control the line and Manning will probably have all the time he needs.

Peyton leads one of the scariest passing offenses in recent memory. He, Reggie Wayne, and Marvin Harrison are all putting up big numbers this year. Nate has been solid, but McGee has been getting burned this year and the safeties still make a lot of mistakes. Peyton will probably be able to pick apart our young secondary. It’s nothing against them, but Manning is just too smart and good for any defense to really stop. The best part of the Bills’ D is their Linebackers. This should not matter too much considering the Colts do not run that much and don’t use the Tight End too often. The linebackers won’t be able to influence the game in Manning can just throw deep to Harrison and Wayne all game.

It says something about an offense when the team’s Middle Linebacker is tied for second, behind the Kicker, in total points. Evans has been good, but J.P. has had trouble recently converting on big plays when Evans gets open, and Willis lost his nose for the end zone. This might all just be spawning from a terrible offensive line. The running backs can’t run and J.P. fumbles more than he scores. The line too many players in, but it is a bad sign when the referee can strip the ball from your quarter back on a run (i.e. J.P. in the pats game.) Dwight Freeney is one of the game’s best pass rushing defensive ends and he’ll be going up against the bright spot on the Bills’ line, Jason Peters. This match-up will be a good test to see if Peters will really become the great player he can be or whether he’ll just be the serviceable player next to the revolving door of the rest of the line.

J.P. is not having a terrible throwing season, 7 TDs 6 Ints and a 61.3 completion percentage. He has the opportunity to become a good football player, he just needs to fix his two glaring holes. First of all as I already mentioned, he fumbles like it’s his job. I’m sure there are many ways to fix this problem, Travis Henry and Tiki Barber both did, but it is getting to the point with J.P. that I’m thinking glue on his left hand is the only option. His second fatal flaw is he is silent on the bench. After one of his many three-and-outs one can find J.P. sitting by himself on the bench. Talk to somebody about what’s going on in the field, see what you can do to fix the offense, even chew somebody out, don’t just sit there like a neglected child. Even the Kicker usually talks to the long snapper and holder.

The one weakness the Colts have is their run defense is very suspect. Luckily for the Bills Willis McGahee, their starting running back and focal point of the offense is out with broken ribs. Because of this Dick Jauron is going to have to hop back on the A-Train. Anthony Thomas lead Jauron to the playoffs once in Chicago, hopefully he can do it again. He also did have a good game against Green Bay last year, 95 yards and a TD. That TD gave him more points on the year than McGahee. It’s sad to see a player of Willis’s caliber behind the Bills line.

The game will rest upon the shoulders of A-Train and Terrence McGee, I don’t expect Thomas to disappoint, but I’m not so sure about McGee this week. Manning is too good and Wayne is playing like a real superstar this year.

Picks and Parlays
The Bills’ game will premiere two of this week’s top fantasy performers. Sadly neither are Bills. As he has done so many times Peyton Manning will be this week’s best QB, the Bills are fading and he is just so good. McGee has been less than impressive this year and With Manning throwing him the ball Reggie Wayne will rack up points this week. LaDanian Tomlinson is leading the league in touchdowns and is two yards behind Tiki Barber for the league lead. He is heading into Cinci, who does not offer a stout run defense, he’s your best bet at running back. Baltimore will make everyone remember Vince Young is a rookie next week, they’ll be great. The Colts will man handle the Bills and cover the 12 point spread, and probably the 45-point over by themselves. I’m still debating over the lock of the week though. It’s either the Chiefs -1 at Miami, or the Chargers -1 at Cinci. Both should be winners.

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